Friday, 18 May 2018

The more things change


That I can spend seven weeks completely isolated from Brexit noise, return and slot seamlessly in to the chronology of events speaks volumes to the uncomfortable dithering over our EU withdrawal. It has nothing to do with me or my knowledge. It is precisely because nothing of any particular significance has taken place that I needn't have worried about losing track of things. We are no closer to reaching solutions to the core problems and this government instead prefers to dance around flirting with made-up answers to complex questions. See maximum facilitation.

Upon returning to Twitter's wonk bubble I notice immediately the familiar stench of intellectual atrophy emanating from Westminster. Ignorance of concepts still pervades what is left of trade debate and there are no signs that anything will improve any time soon. Some politicians still believe that an FTA can achieve frictionless borders with the EU if coupled with advanced elements of mutual recognition. Others are convinced that a no deal Brexit will not give rise to any new technical barriers to trade on the grounds that we already have full regulatory equivalence.

The more I have analysed Brexit the better I have come to realise that I have been right over the past year to place my faith in the inevitability of a soft Brexit. The irony from the outset has been that the harder our leaders have dug for a hard Brexit, the more clearly they have exposed the underlying necessity of a soft one. To Leavers I say this isn't half bad and we can make the most of a  much better situation, and to Remainers I say that the worst is probably over. The kicking of the can further down the path is not at all coincidental. It is the effect of red lines meeting a brick wall of trade realities.

In all of this I still believe in the primary purpose of Brexit, itself a political (not economic) pursuit. People ask me why I haven't converted to a Remain position and my answer has stayed more or less the same. I believe the UK is better off with the Single Market and worse off with ever closer union, which I believe extends the chain of accountability and pushes the levers of governance further away from citizens. Remaining would also still equate to very limited wiggle room for the kind of treaty change we need in Europe.

I also believe that a gradual regulatory separation between eurozone and non-eurozone EU members was to become a necessary component to future European integration. In this I saw an Efta Brexit as a mechanism by which we could jump-start a slightly different power dynamic on the continent, enabling us to position ourselves at the forefront of a European alternative to close-knit political union. Whether this happens in practice is anybody's guess, but there is a lot to be said for the argument that the EU's inner eurozone core is in need of special attention.

The case, now, for an EEA Brexit is unchanged and really rather simple. In retaining the EEA framework, we avoid the economic consequences attached to leaving the Single Market. This will prove invaluable because British supply chains have spent upwards of four decades acclimating to the EU's intricately developed systems. Sudden disruption is to supply chains what Christmas is to turkeys. Furthermore, by slipping into a ready-made package we are better able to eliminate much of the can-kicking and conceptual haziness from the process.

In all honesty the boat may already have left the harbour on applying to rejoin Efta, but this needn't cause too much in the way of panic. If the UK finds itself floating in a bespoke EEA position in the forthcoming years, application to rejoin may seem like the natural next step in order to maximise consultation and participation at key bodies within the EEA. The framework is based upon extensive collaboration and mutual trust, and its inherent flexibility makes it worthy of more serious consideration as a future UK pit stop.

Whatever red lines still breathe life in Whitehall are sure to die as negotiations progress. There are too many to work with and some are in direct contravention with others. And in all of this time wasting lies the uncomfortable fact that there is actually little point in leaving the Single Market. Standard setting is increasingly organised at a global level and the world is slowly converging on multilaterally agreed regulations. Any reductions in gross immigration will likely be modest and we will be left feeling as if we have opted for the short straw come the end of it.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Oliver,
    I understand how you feel.

    I used to enjoy the circus Brexit has become and mentioned it here a couple of times before, but after two years of manifested ignorance on the UK side (this does not include you nor others that like you have shown to do an effort to differentiate reality from the bull you were initially told) I now only want UK to leave - to f* off basically - as I'm sick of this goverment incapability of doing anything worth of our time.

    This is the only way I see has value so Europe can move on and take distance.

    The only question I put out there when someone asks me "how do you feel about Brexit?" now is "when are you leaving?".

    It has turned into something annoying to see the goverment hasn't the smallest clue and the only thing it does is consuming our time while expecting to be saved by the EU offering them the impossible deal they've never came up with.

    They are mediocre even as clowns. It's like watching the same Benny Hill's sketch one million times...fun ends and it turns boring.

    Could you all please push your goverment to leave? Cliff edge and all that would fit as that's the only option these morons will find interesting.

    The sooner the better so the circus can close. They are not selling any tickets anymore.

    It's sad to me to see a great country like UK to have turned into this.

    I wish they would have listen to people like you but honestly I don't think they're capable of making any decision that could be considered sensible. They're idiots in the most deep sense of the word.

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